​ARTICLES, ESSAYS & IDEAS

​Original articles, op-ed pieces, and more – commissioned by EXTRA.

Independent Risk Amplifiers: Towards a more integrated way of understanding X-Risks

Thomas Reuter, EXTRA Chair

​Paul Crutzen’s concept of the Anthropocene has accustomed us to think of existential risks as arising from our collective actions. Anthropogenic climate change is perhaps the most well-known example of such self-destructive cultural pathologies. Understanding how human behaviour drives nature-based existential risks is essential, but it is not enough in itself. The gradually recognized concept of polycrisis conveys the further realisation that risks interact directly with one another and/or indirectly through systemic effects. What is often still not considered is that x-risks can be massively amplified by independent factors that are not drivers of nature-based existential risks in and of themselves, but strongly impact our social resilience or political capacity to mitigate x-risks. This article looks at a pair of closely interconnected risk amplifiers: inequality and authoritarianism. 

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AI Update 2025: Recent Articles on the AI Industry and Impacts

Mike Marien, EXTRA Director of Research

The October 2025 EXTRA Newsletter included an AI/AGI essay with 32 footnotes—mostly citing recent AI reports, three books, and several articles, primarily from the New York Times. Topics covered the massive and growing AI industry, actual and potential impacts, and 11 reports calling for guardrails. Since mid-October, over a dozen articles have explored related topics: Nvidia's central role, the "AI bubble" in the stock market, the global spread and impact of data centers, and ChatGPT's Sora app generating "AI slop."

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UPCOMING EVENTS

A selection of events to be aware of that are organized by EXTRA, allies, partners, and organizations on our radar. 

REPORTS

Our latest selection of the most notable published reports on Existential Threats and Risks. Beat the info glut by taking a look at our monthly five. 

If you have time, check the 20 Notable Reports or the complete EXTRA Directory on our website.

UNEQUAL: The rise of a new American oligarchy and the agenda we need. 

Roosevelt Institute, Oxfam America

November 2025, 43p.

U.S. inequality reached extremes in 2025: the top 10 billionaires gained nearly $700 billion in one year. The report urges rebalancing power through unions and antitrust, fair taxation, reimagining social safety nets, and strengthening workers' rights to restore economic justice.

Roasting the Planet Report: The Global Climate Impact of Big Meat and Dairy

Environmental Justice Foundation

October 2025, 48p.

45 major meat and dairy companies emit over 1 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent annually—ranking ninth globally. The report highlights a transparency gap and urges mandatory emissions reporting, binding reduction targets, and support for agroecological, plant-based systems to avoid climate tipping points.

10 New Insights in Climate Science 2025/2026

Future Earth, The Earth League, WCRP

October 2025, 56p.

Synthesizes latest climate science: accelerating warming from elevated energy imbalance and declining carbon sinks narrows the Paris window. Heat stress erodes productivity; losses at 2–3°C require urgent mitigation and adaptation. Models may underestimate the rate of warming, necessitating refined projections and closer monitoring.

2025 Global Threat Report

CrowdStrike

June 2025, 53p.

Cyber adversaries use AI-enhanced, malware-free tactics (79% in 2024). China-nexus activity surged 150%, voice phishing jumped 442%, and breakout time dropped to 48 minutes. CrowdStrike recommends phishing-resistant MFA, XDR, AI-native defense, and proactive threat hunting.

Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty. United Nations Environment Programme

UNEP

March 2025, 98p.

Assesses global climate adaptation planning, finance, and implementation, revealing widening gaps. Developing countries need 12 times the current adaptation finance by 2035—the Glasgow Climate Pact's 2025 goal will be missed. Calls for a "global collective effort" to bridge the finance gap, aligning adaptation with social inclusion and gender equality.

Closing the Deal: Financing Our Security Against Pandemic Threats

G20 High Level Independent Panel on Financing the Global Commons for Pandemic Preparedness and Response

March 2025, 84p.
Examines pandemic financing gaps as threats remain "existential." Despite progress, aid is declining. Five recommendations include unlocking domestic resources, diversifying medical countermeasures, enabling at-risk procurement financing, operationalizing test/treatment/PPE financing, and strengthening the Pandemic Fund. Urges coordinated action before the 2026 UN meeting.

Democracy Report 2025: 25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?

V-Dem Institute

March 2025, 64p.

Democracy has declined for 25 years, with 72% of the world under autocratic rule—the highest since 1978. A "third wave" of autocratization affects 45 countries in 2024. Freedom of expression, elections, and civil society are deteriorating in 44 countries. Eastern Europe and South/Central Asia face severe erosion; only Brazil, Poland, and Thailand show democratization. Liberal democracies are now the rarest regime type (29 in 2024).

The security blind spot: Cascading climate impacts and tipping points threaten national security

Chatham House, GSI, SCRI and IPPR

October 2024, 54p.

Climate change poses underestimated security risks to the UK, affecting food, the economy, health, and geopolitics. The report highlights "cascading impacts" and tipping points, such as AMOC collapse. It calls for mandated climate-security assessments and cross-government coordination, warning "the unavoidable must be managed to avoid the unmanageable."

REVIEWS

Synopses and reviews of scientific and policy articles from external sources not commissioned by EXTRA.

SPARS Pandemic 2025-2028: A Futuristic Scenario for Public Health Risk Communicators

By Monica Schoch-Spana et al., 2025
Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

In October 2024, the Immunisation Coalition published Stanley Perlman's Recent pandemics and informed predictions with 12 predictions. This expands on 'Prediction #5: We will make mistakes in communication.' The SPARS article examines public health communication challenges during outbreaks requiring novel medical countermeasures, exploring pandemic scenarios with inadequate preparedness.

Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear Risk, 

By Heather Williams, 2025 

Centre for Strategic and International Studies

Argues that unrestrained nuclear competition and the erosion of treaties increase reliance on nuclear weapons. The erosion of the global nuclear order demands change to avoid miscalculations. Coercive nuclear signaling, particularly by Russia, poses novel threats requiring new containment methods.

Why Every Company Needs a Biodiversity Strategy in 2025

By Andrew Sutherland & Mariana Sarmiento, 2025

The Palladium Group

Insists on prioritizing biodiversity loss. Over half of global GDP depends on nature—pollination, water, and soil health. Key recommendations include blended financing and biodiversity credits. Growing social accountability and reputational risks drive business action.

NEWS from the World Press

Links to a must-read selection of news for a global outlook across the spectrum of Existential Threats and Risks sourced from the media and web.

The aid vacuum: poor countries will have to adapt as loans replace grants. December 05, 2025, The Observer, Open Access

Commentary on Trump's boycott of the G20 summit in South Africa and the collapse of multilateralism, highlighting a new report showing surging global inequality, collapsing development aid, and the need for the IMF and World Bank to adapt to a post-aid world with greater country sovereignty.

Space debris: will it take a catastrophe for nations to take the issue seriously?. December 04, 2025, The Conversation, Open Access

Analysis of the growing threat posed by space debris and the lack of international coordination to address orbital pollution, questioning whether major nations will act proactively or wait for a catastrophic collision to spur regulatory action.

Artificial intelligence and algorithmic exclusion. December 04, 2025, Brookings Institution, Open Access 

Policy proposal arguing that AI regulations must address "algorithmic exclusion"—when systems fail to make meaningful predictions for marginalized populations due to missing or incomplete data—as a harm equal to bias and discrimination, particularly affecting low-income Americans and digitally disconnected groups.

Report: Top AI Companies Are Falling Short on Safety. December 04, 2025, Tech.co, Open Access

The Future of Life Institute's Winter 2025 AI Safety Index found that leading AI companies, including OpenAI, Meta, and Google DeepMind, lack adequate safety frameworks and protocols, and that all eight companies analyzed are moving toward AGI/superintelligence without explicit plans to control smarter-than-human technology.

Safeguarding Against Global Catastrophe. December 03, 2025, Nuclear Threat Initiative, Open Access

Analysis of emerging global catastrophic risks and the need for improved international cooperation and preparedness frameworks to prevent nuclear, biological, and other existential threats from escalating into civilization-ending disasters.

Elon Musk warns of major war within a decade, sends internet into frenzy - is he right?. December 02, 2025, Economic Times, Open Access.
Elon Musk's warning on social media that a major global war is "inevitable in 5 to 10 years" triggered international debate, with analysts pointing to U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan, the Ukraine conflict, and civil unrest as potential flashpoints, though no data confirms his timeline.

Growth measured in humanity: why dialogue must shape the new economy. December 02, 2025, World Economic Forum, Open Access 

An essay arguing that the World Economic Forum's 2026 Davos theme, "A Spirit of Dialogue," reflects the need to rebuild trust and to measure progress through human well-being rather than GDP, emphasizing that empathy, ethics, and authentic intelligence must guide technology.

China wants to lead the world on AI regulation — will the plan work?. December 01, 2025, Nature, Paywall 

China's proposal to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) represents its bid to lead global AI governance, contrasting with the U.S.'s deregulation efforts, as the world struggles to create binding international rules for AI amid risks ranging from inequality to existential catastrophe.

An Initiative of WAAS