|
Newsletter of the EXTRA Working Group
of the World Academy of Art and Science
|
|
|
|
|
Running on EXTRA time…
Insights from the EXTRA Working Group to help you
keep track of ‘Existential Threats and Risks to All’
|
Welcome
to the EXTRA Newsletter
|
EDITORIAL
|
Navigating the Bewildering Array of Global X-Risk
In our first edition of the new year, we reflect on what may be referred to as the 'global risk reporting landscape'. A significant number of organisations within the x-risk reporting community endeavour to provide an annual or less frequent overview of this landscape, rather than specialising in monitoring a single risk.
A lead article by Lorenzo Rodriguez and Mike Marien presents a preliminary list of these various overview attempts, their methodologies, sector-specific differences, and potential biases in how risk is portrayed. For example, in the case of 'survey of experts’-based overviews, much depends on who is surveyed and what questions they are asked. With our preliminary analysis, we are commencing a long-term effort to monitor reporting on the global risk landscape, gradually moving towards greater quantification. This is a top priority because decision-makers increasingly need to weigh up their responses to multiple risks.
In another article, EXTRA Chair Prof Thomas Reuter examines the flow-on effects of current geopolitical destabilisation on the broader risk landscape. Perhaps the most famous example of an annual risk landscape overview is the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report. We review the 2026 issue that has just been released. We also review the most important other new publications and news stories on x-risks across the spectrum, as always, with some priority placed on multiple-risk overviews.
Lorenzo Rodriguez, Editor, EXTRA Newsletter
Prof Thomas Reuter, Chair & Co-editor, EXTRA
|
|
|
ARTICLES, ESSAYS & IDEAS
|
|
Original articles, op-ed pieces, and more – commissioned by EXTRA.
|
|
|
|
A Moment for Truth: Current Geopolitical Destabilisation has Major Flow-On Effects on other X-Risks
|
|
Thomas Reuter, Chair & Co-editor, EXTRA
|
 |
|
|
|
This article examines a defining historical moment: the deliberate dismantling of the post-World War II multilateral order that prevented catastrophic conflict and enabled global cooperation on existential challenges. This breakdown is catastrophically timed, occurring when humanity faces threats demanding greater international coordination, not nationalist retreat. Challenges the notion that authoritarian leadership offers solutions, instead asserting that democratic governance, truth-seeking through open deliberation, and evidence-based reasoning are indispensable for survival. Thomas contends that humanity's greatest strength lies in rational thought, free communication, and voluntary cooperation—essential ingredients for navigating contemporary crises and coordinating unified global governance.
Read More
|
|
|
The EXTRA Risk Landscape Chart (RLC): Mapping the Global Risk Reporting Landscape
|
|
Mike Marien, Director of Research, EXTRA
Lorenzo Rodriguez, Research and Project Officer, EXTRA
|
 |
|
Major reports and books now address multiple existential threats rather than single risks, reflecting growing recognition of interconnected x-risks. However, methodologies and priorities vary widely across organizations, leaving readers uncertain about which risks matter most. EXTRA's Risk Landscape Chart (RLC) covers 35 reports and 7 books reporting on the global polycrisis. It reveals how experts frame and prioritize risks differently: geopolitical instability, cybersecurity, climate change, and AI appear consistently, yet emphasis shifts by sector. This cartography illuminates both consensus and divergence in risk assessment, serving as a tool for foresight and collaboration.
Read More
|
|
|
|
|
UPCOMING EVENTS
|
|
A selection of events to be aware of that are organized by EXTRA, allies, partners, and organizations on our radar.
|
|
|
Is Extractivism a Prime Cause of the Polycrisis? A Discussion of the Political Economy of Anthropogenic Existential Risks
|
|
EXTRA & EXALT
Online | February 17, 2026 - 13:00 CET
|
|
Register Here
|
|
|
|
Munich Security Conference 2026
|
|
Stiftung Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz
Munich | February 13-15, 2026
|
|
Read More
|
|
|
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
|
|
World Economic Forum
Davos-Klosters | 20-24 January 2026
|
|
Read More
|
|
|
FERMA Launches Second Global Risk Manager Survey
|
|
Federation of European Risk Management Associations (FERMA)
Online survey | Open until the end of March 2026
|
|
Read More
|
|
|
|
|
|
REPORTS
|
|
Our latest selection of the most notable published reports on Existential Threats and Risks. Beat the info glut by taking a look at our monthly selection. If you have time, check the 20 Notable Reports or the complete EXTRA Directory on our website.
|
|
|
|
|
1. Global Risks Report 2026
World Economic Forum
January 2026, 102p
This 21st Global Risks Report, "The Age of Competition," reveals a negative outlook: 50% of experts anticipate a turbulent period over the next two years, rising to 57% over 10 years. Key findings include a decline in multilateralism, with geo-economic confrontation topping immediate-term risks (18% of respondents) and economic risks rising sharply. Misinformation and disinformation are a top short-term technological concern, while Adverse outcomes of AI technologies see the sharpest long-term increase. Environmental risks are prioritised downward in the short term, despite long-term severity. Underscores the urgent need for collective action amidst intensifying competition. EXTRA plans to look at the WEF report in more detail soon.
2. Top Risks 2026
Eurasia Group
January 2026, 46p.
Identifies 2026 as a "tipping point year" with the U.S. "unwinding its own global order" through political revolution, becoming the "principal source of global risk." The world faces 60 active conflicts. China strategically leads in electric infrastructure and vastly superior electricity production (429 GW added in 2024 vs. the U.S.'s 51 GW), both crucial for AI deployment. AI faces an "enshittification" trajectory toward extractive models that could "program your behavior." Russia's "gray-zone operations" against NATO increase confrontation risks. The dollar remains dominant, but multipolar economic trends emerge. For further commentary on these risks, please review Ian Bremmer's column at TIME magazine.
3. Global Cooperation Barometer 2026
World Economic Forum, McKinsey & Company
January 2026, 37p.
Global cooperation levels remain steady, but multilateralism is weakening while flexible arrangements grow. The barometer tracks 41 indicators across five pillars. Multilateral mechanisms declined sharply: peacekeeping, resolutions, and health aid fell by more than 20% since 2019. Foreign aid fell 11% in 2024. 123 million people were forcibly displaced by the end of 2024. Services trade and bandwidth (both at four times pre-pandemic levels) showed momentum. The world faces 60 active conflicts, the most since WWII. 85% perceive cooperation as "less cooperative" in 2025. Leaders are urged to "re-map" engagement and advance shared interests through new coalitions in this rapidly changing, multipolar world.
4. Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026
World Economic Forum, Accenture
January 2026, 64p.
Cybersecurity risk is accelerating due to AI, geopolitics, and supply chains. 94% identify AI as the key driver, 87% cite AI vulnerabilities as the fastest-growing risks. The number of organizations assessing AI security doubled to 64% in 20—3131% report low confidence in national preparedness; 73% experienced cyber-enabled fraud in 2025. The public sector is vulnerable: 23% lack resilience—average breach cost: $4.44 million. Only 19% exceed minimum requirements. Future threats include autonomous systems, digital currencies, space technologies, undersea cables, and quantum computing (37% expect impact within 12 months). Collective resilience requires decisive leadership and increased investment.
5. Global Catastrophic Risks 2026
Global Challenges Foundation
December 2025, 57p.
Highlights increasingly interconnected, accelerating, and reinforcing global catastrophic risks across environmental, technological, and security domains, exacerbated by outdated governance. Key threats include catastrophic climate change (7 of 9 Earth-system boundaries transgressed), ecological collapse, WMD entanglement, and AI in military decision-making. A significant governance gap is noted: coordinated responses to 1% asteroid-impact threats but a lack of comparable mechanisms for higher-risk Earth-system tipping points. The Global Challenges Foundation advocates a "paradigm shift in international cooperation" via three transformations: from fragmentation to connection, from erosion to legitimacy, and from imbalance to inclusion. It concludes that "the rules written for a stable world no longer fit the one taking shape before us," urging modernizing global governance.
6. Preventive Priorities Survey 2026
Council on Foreign Relations
December 2025, 20p.
The 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey evaluates 30 global conflicts based on likelihood and U.S. impact. Five are high-likelihood, high-impact: Russia-Ukraine intensification, renewed Gaza fighting, West Bank conflict, U.S.-Venezuela operations, and domestic political violence. 28 of 30 were deemed highly or moderately likely. 620 experts participated; 112 prioritized Ukraine for prevention. The Middle East remains prominent with six Tier I-II conflicts. Nine contingencies involve Africa, with Sudan's war most likely overall. Great power risks persist: Taiwan Strait and Russia-NATO crises have even odds of occurring and high impact ratings.
7. Global Risk & Resilience Outlook 2026
Everbridge
November 2025, 32p.
Disruptions are increasingly frequent and interconnected, demanding comprehensive organizational resilience. By 2027, 60% of organizations won't fully adopt resilience principles. Critical gaps: 50% lack formal crisis strategies, 24% never test plans, and only 31% express high confidence in crisis management. Cybersecurity tops threats for 53%. Climate incidents account for 69% of events; LA wildfire losses: $131 billion. Major deficits: 29% cite training gaps, 61% haven't invested in AI/analytics, 64% allocate under 5% budget to resilience. Organizations must embrace proactive, technology-driven strategies and a five-stage resilience framework to anticipate and adapt to "polycrises" and fast-moving disruptions.
8. Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament. International Journal of Forecasting
Ezra Karger, Josh Rosenberg, Zachary Jacobs, Molly Hickman, and Phillip E. Tetlock
March 2025, 17p.
Compared the x-risk forecasting of two different types of scientific experts, subject-matter specialists and talented generalists. Even after the experts discussed each other’s arguments, specialists were found to be significantly more pessimistic, assigning higher probabilities to both catastrophic and existential threats. This pattern was most pronounced for existential threats, especially those with anthropogenic and AI causation. This raises the important question: Do experts become overly concerned because they are heavily focused on a subject and see it as more important than it may appear in a broader context, or is it rather their superior knowledge that gives them a stronger rational basis for concern? The authors plan to test this question in a future study. Meanwhile, the results cast some dispersions on the validity of expert survey-based risk overviews.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS from the World Press
|
|
Links to a must-read selection of news for a global outlook across the spectrum of Existential Threats and Risks sourced from the media and web.
|
|
1. Pulling out of 66 international organizations, Trump turns his back on science, facts, reason. January 12, 2026. Benjamin Santer, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Looks in some detail at the risk amplification entailed in the collapse of multilateral agreements, such as the IPCC, that address existential risks common to all humanity, and speculates on the chances of carrying on without support from the current US federal government.
2. Statusquotastrophe: Interviews with US Public Reveal Dark Trend. January 09, 2026, Charlton & Marissa Yingling, Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.
Reports that the US public is more concerned about a catastrophic present than about existential risks that may arise in the future. Fear of the absence of necessary change rather than of unexpected change seems to be the major issue, according to this qualitative study.
3. 13 existential threats the United Nations is privately panicking about in 2026. January 02, 2026. Danielle Sachs, MSN.
Summarises the most pressing existential threats identified by the UN, drawing on several UN publications. A possible collapse of international law heads the list.
4. Examining the Three Existential Threats of the 21st Century: Artificial Intelligence, Climate Change, and Nuclear Weapons. December 17, 2025. Hassan Fattahi and Zahra Mohebi-Pourkani, Crosscurrents.
The article provides an overview and concisely discusses the main dimensions of three key existential risks. Interactions between these risks are highlighted.
5. Existential Risk: China ticks two boxes out of four. November 03, 2025. John Gittings, SOAS China Institute
It is well known that the two principal carbon-emitting powers, China and the USA, are now moving in opposite directions on environmental policy. At the UN General Assembly in September 2025, Xi Jinping promised to cut Chinese emissions by 7-10 percent by 2035 and that he would “strive to do better. The next day, Donald Trump told the Assembly climate change was “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world”. This article, however, traces some of the key policy statements that mark the pathway by which China arrived at its different strategy stance on “existential risk” (shengcun fengxian 生存风险).
6. 2026 Global Guardian – Global Risk Map Summary & Key Takeaways. September 25, 2025. Anonymous.
Introduces the 2026 Global Risk Map and highlights three regions across South Asia, Eurasia, and the Americas where political instability and civil unrest are most likely to occur. The full report can be downloaded.
|
|
|
|
|
