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Issue 9, April 2026

​Newsletter of the EXTRA Working Group

of the World Academy of Art and Science

Running on EXTRA time…

Insights from the EXTRA Working Group to help you 

keep track of ‘Existential Threats and Risks to All’

Welcome 

to the EXTRA Newsletter

EDITORIAL

More than only AI: Existential Risks and the Polycrisis on Energy, Climate, Geopolitics, and Food Security

 

This edition provides a general overview of new insights across risk categories. Nevertheless, we also continue to gauge the impact on global security of what Canadian Prime Minister Carney has described as a ‘rupture’ in global law and order. This is a multilayered trend. Nation-states, even in regions formerly viewed as bastions of legality, such as the EU, are backsliding as well (see REPORTS). The breakdown of the rules-based international order is reflected in increased global security crises such as the Iran conflict and an escalating energy and food supply shock.

The decline of multilateralism is also compromising the global system of scientific cooperation on which effective risk monitoring depends (see NEWS). In a video podcast we explore, with Prof Ortwin Renn, the risks these trends pose to global governance of an ever deepening polycrisis.
Meanwhile, current conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have also heralded the rise of AI in military operations. The serious implications this has for escalation risk are discussed in a feature article by Kiriti Choudhury.

 

Lorenzo Rodriguez, Editor, EXTRA Newsletter

Prof Thomas Reuter, Co-editor & Chair, EXTRA Working Group

INTERVIEWS & WEBINARS

 

Original, short interviews or discussions with experts and stakeholders on various categories of existential challenges. 

From Systemic Risk to System Failure: An Update on 

The State of the Polycrisis

 

We invite you to listen to the first episode of the EXTRA podcast series. In this episode, Prof Ortwin Renn, former director of the Potsdam Institute for Sustainability and polycrisis expert, provides an update on interlocking risk scenarios, in conversation with EXTRA chair, Prof Thomas Reuter. The rupture of the rules-based international order and ideologically driven hostility towards science are triggering complex downstream risks, undermining the global community's ability to respond to existential risks with unity and a shared understanding of the facts. 

 

At a time when cooperative global action is urgently needed to safeguard vital life support systems, they argue, this kind of political instability is something we can ill afford. The situation also creates new opportunities and invites push-back from progressive forces, however, which could signal a turning point. Looking beyond individual crises to the structural web connecting them, we discuss how fossil-fuel dependencies ripple across energy, food, and financial systems and how AI technologies reshape the nature of conflict and much more.

 

When Everything Connects: Mapping the Systemic Roots and Symptoms of the Polycrisis

​ARTICLES, ESSAYS & IDEAS

 

​Original articles, op-ed pieces, and more – commissioned by EXTRA.

Warfare at Machine Speed

Kiriti Prasad Choudhury, EXTRA AI, IT, and Data Analytics Specialist

The primary risk arising from military artificial intelligence is shifting from the use of autonomous weapons as such to the erosion of strategic friction, the human-mediated delays that have historically moderated or decelerated escalation.

Read More

UPCOMING EVENTS

A selection of events to be aware of that are organized by EXTRA, allies, partners and organizations on our radar. 

Existential Threats and Other Disasters: Novel (Bio)ethical Solutions for Novel Challenges

Centre for Science and Bioethics (CSB)

Paris, France (Physical Event) | June 11–12 

Read More

Alva Myrdal Centre Multidisciplinary Conference on Nuclear Disarmament

Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament, Uppsala University

Uppsala, Sweden (Hybrid Event) | June 9-10

Read More

IAPP AI Governance Global Europe 2026

International Association of Privacy Professionals (IAPP)

Dublin, Ireland (Physical Event) | June 1-4 

Read More

4th Biosecurity Virtual Symposium

American Biological Safety Association (ABSA)

Online Event | May 12-13 

Read More

GLF Africa 2026: Stewarding Our Rangelands

Global Landscapes Forum (GLF)

Nairobi, Kenya (Hybrid Event) | May 6-7

Read More

First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels

Government of Colombia & Government of the Netherlands

In-Person Event | April 24-29, 2026 @ Santa Marta, Colombia

Read More

REPORTS

Our latest selection of outstanding reports on Existential Threats and Risks. Beat the info glut by taking a look at our monthly list. 

If you have time, take a look at the 20 Notable Reports or browse the complete EXTRA Risk Directory on our website.

Building a Human Resilience Infrastructure for the Age of AI: Experts Call for Radical Change Across Institutions, Social Structures

Imagining the Digital Future Centre, Elon University

April 2026, 379p.

Based on a survey of 387 experts, the report shows that 45% believe people will have little resilience to AI's impact and urge an institution-based resilience push to address this concern at a systemic level. As AI begins to shape the majority of human decision-making, safeguards are needed to avoid a dissatisfying outcome for humanity. The report contains a wealth of individual insights on AI impacts across the full spectrum of life.

 

Nature Positive: Halting and reversing biodiversity loss toward restoring Earth system stability

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), World Commission on Protected Areas

April 2026, 29p.

Calls for a “Nature Positive” future by 2030, stressing that healthy ecosystems are vital for prosperity, climate, and development goals. The Three Global Conditions Framework urges conserving and restoring key biomes, protecting freshwater and tropical forests, and integrating biodiversity, climate, and water policy into Nature Positive governance.

 

Preparing for a potential crossing of an AMOC tipping point

Nummelin et al. (PLOS Climate)

March 31, 2026, 4p.

Societies are adapting to inevitable climate impacts, yet planning ignores potentially disastrous tipping points. A possible AMOC collapse illustrates how neglecting the precautionary principle gambles with human security. Despite scientific advances, we still lack region-specific impact data, which is urgently needed to guide effective mitigation and preparedness strategies.

 

Liberties Rule of Law Report 2026

Civil Liberties Union for Europe

March 2026, 844p.

In its seventh annual edition, the report monitors the state of the rule of law in the European Union. A total of 61% of the 22 member states covered by the report show no progress or no visible progress in improving the rule of law, and 13% are backsliding. No recommendations were found to have been fully implemented. The five ‘dismantlers’ were Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, and Slovakia, whose governments have been actively eroding the rule-of-law institutions.

 

State of the Global Climate 2025

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

March 2026, 46p.

The "State of the Global Climate 2025" reports record-breaking warmth. 2025 was the second or third warmest year, with 2023-2025 being the three hottest on record. Greenhouse gases reached 800,000-year highs. Oceans absorbed 91% of excess heat, setting new records. Melting ice accelerated sea-level rise, leading to cascading impacts on human and natural systems.

NEWS from the World Press

Links to a must-read selection of news for a global outlook across the spectrum of Existential Threats and Risks sourced from the media and web.

 

Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought. D. Carrington, The Guardian, April 16, 2026.

North Atlantic currents act as a vital heat conveyor, shaping regional and global climate. Global warming is weakening them, pushing toward a tipping point whose collapse could bring extreme European weather, severe North American sea-level rise, and poorly understood impacts elsewhere.

 

Neo-academic Cold War is closing the door to global science. John Aubrey Douglass, University World News, April 10, 2026. 
Outlines how rising nationalism and a new Cold War are fragmenting global science, reversing post–Cold War gains in international collaboration, restricting student mobility, and weakening science diplomacy at precisely the moment it is most needed for global risk governance.

 

IMF, World Bank and UN food agency say war is increasing food prices, insecurity. Reuters (Andrea Shalal), Open Access, April 8, 2026 

A joint statement by the heads of the IMF, World Bank, and World Food Programme warns that the Middle East war has triggered one of the largest disruptions to global energy markets in modern history, with sharp rises in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices set to drive food insecurity — hitting low-income, import-dependent economies hardest and threatening to push 45 million additional people into acute hunger by mid-2026. 

 

Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age: Ideas to Keep People First. OpenAI, April 7, 2026.

This open letter contains important, thoughtful, and timely proposals to regulate AI and mitigate potentially harmful impacts on employment and social justice. Readers need to consider that the statement comes from a stakeholder with vested interests, as OpenAI is a leading company in the field of AI. Notably, while regulations are urgently needed, they may make it more difficult for new companies to compete.

 

'Yes, we can': a blueprint for a clean economy and healthy planet. Nature, (Paywall), April 5, 2026.
A review of Nicholas Stern's new book outlining how rapid decarbonization can drive economic prosperity, framing climate action not as a cost but as the defining growth opportunity of the twenty-first century.

 

World reaches milestone for nature: 10% of ocean now officially protected. UNEP/WCMC, April 2, 2026.

In this time of incessant bad news, the international community achieved an important breakthrough in ocean protection, covering more than 5 million km2. This achievement comes 6 years after the original 2020 schedule set in the Aichi Biodiversity Targets agreement.

 

AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is far more worrying. K.T. Baker, The Guardian, 26 March 2026.

This news item should be read in conjunction with the feature article by Kiriti Choudury. It explores similar issues in relation to a specific case study, involving the deflection of blame  onto AI for a recent war crime in the Iran conflict.


Which climate policies actually make a difference? Our new analysis has the answer. The Conversation, Open Access, March 9, 2026.

A study of 1,737 climate policies in 40 countries over 32 years identifies 28 measures — led by carbon pricing, energy-efficiency standards, renewable-energy R&D, and emissions reporting — that reliably cut emissions across diverse contexts, offering policymakers a robust, evidence-based toolkit. 

 

​Carbon emissions now more than double the planetary boundary, analysis finds. Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Phys.org, 6 March 2026.

Finds that current carbon emissions are more than twice the level Earth's natural systems can safely absorb, widening the gap between human activity and planetary capacity. This growing imbalance is accelerating the destabilization of natural systems and reinforces the urgency of deep, rapid emissions reductions.

 

Ten Things to Know About Nuclear Risk. X-Lab, University of Chicago, 2026. 
Highlights core issues in assessing nuclear war risk. Amid renewed nuclear threats in the Ukraine and Iran conflicts and doubts about some leaders’ judgment, it stresses the need to address vulnerabilities in nuclear-weapons decision-making processes.

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