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Insights from the EXTRA Working Group to help you 

keep track of ‘Existential Threats and Risks to All’

Welcome 

to the EXTRA Newsletter

EDITORIAL

Existential Risk Governance Threatened by Lawlessness

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This edition cannot ignore the dramatic escalation in recent months of a coordinated assault on international law at the hands of those who believe that ‘might makes right’. The long-looming threat of major war that began with Ukraine has now become manifest in a second theatre, Iran. AI-guided weapon systems are making their debut with lethal ‘mistakes’, and even a nuclear war is no longer unthinkable.

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Meanwhile, at the national level in many places, the same authoritarian actors are seeking to dismantle democratic political participation (see V-Dem Report below) and to sacrifice past gains in science-based, rational policy to plutocratic interests. With risk governance on issues such as climate change in decline, our ability to exert positive control over the future is compromised.

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In a recent webinar, we discussed these trends with high-level experts from around the world (see below). In this issue, we also place a special emphasis on risk reports relevant to this theme.  

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As Prof Reuter explains in his article, the major flow-on risks from this crisis include not only energy insecurity, inflation, and economic and financial crises, but also a major disruption to the rules-based international order that enables global cooperation on existential risk governance. Elsewhere, however, new global alliances for a sustainable and peaceful future are forming, such as the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels initiative (see Events), or the Global Peace Offensive described in an article by Donato Kiniger Passigli and Charlotte Ørnemark.

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Lorenzo Rodriguez, Editor, EXTRA Newsletter

Prof Thomas Reuter, Co-editor & Chair, EXTRA Working Group

Existential Risk Governance in Turbulent Times: Are we witnessing a descent into prolonged geopolitical disorder or the birth pangs of a ‘New Planetary Order’?

We invite you to watch the recording of our geopolitics webinar, held on March 23, 2026! 

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As the rules-based international order fractures under the weight of unilateralism, armed conflict, and unchecked power politics, humanity's capacity to govern its own existential risks is being tested. This session shifts the focus from daily headlines to the structural forces beneath the events: the collapse of international laws and norms, the weaponisation of economic interdependence, and the deepening rivalry between major powers. Speakers from across five continents examine whether the current turbulence signals the violent end of the existing order or the emergence of a new planetary order — and what either outcome will mean for global cooperation on existential challenges that no nation can face alone.

Carbon emissions now more than double the planetary boundary, analysis finds. Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Phys.org, 6 March 2026.

Finds that current carbon emissions are more than twice the level Earth's natural systems can safely absorb, widening the gap between human activity and planetary capacity. This growing imbalance is accelerating the destabilization of natural systems and reinforces the urgency of deep, rapid emissions reductions.

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The Pro-Human AI Declaration. Pro Human Civil Society Consortium. 4 March 2026.

An open letter by a consortium of civil society organisations outlining priorities for an AI development policy that is geared towards fostering rather than imperiling human welfare.

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Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments. Katharina Seeger & Philip S. J. Minderhoud, Nature, 4 March 2026.
Presents evidence that actual sea levels are significantly higher than the figures used in most coastal hazard assessments, forcing a fundamental reassessment of flood and erosion risks for coastal populations and infrastructure worldwide. The implications for adaptation planning and investment are substantial.

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​New computation method for climate extremes: Researchers reveal 10-fold increase in heat over Europe. University of Graz, Phys.org, 1 March 2026.
Introduces a revised computational approach that uncovers a tenfold increase in heat extremes across Europe — far beyond what conventional modelling methods have captured. The findings suggest standard climate models are significantly underestimating heat risks and call for a serious overhaul of how extreme heat is projected and planned for.

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​We need a global assessment of avoidable climate-change risks. Peter A. Stott et al., Nature, 25 February 2026.
Argues that IPCC assessments focus on climate science rather than risk, leaving a critical gap in understanding what is at stake. A dedicated global risk assessment would clarify the severity of impacts, enabling better-informed decisions about the urgency of mitigation.

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EU sets world's first voluntary standard for permanent carbon removals. EU Directorate-General for Climate Action, 3 February 2026.
The EU’s landmark voluntary standard for permanent carbon removals tackles policy uncertainty and greenwashing. Providing regulatory clarity for businesses and farmers, the framework strengthens the credibility of claims and serves as a global model for carbon-capture policy.

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‘The end of the world as we know it’: Is the rules-based order finished? By Simon Speakman Cordall, Al Jazeera, 21 January 2026.

Provides a critical analysis of the rules-based international order from an alternative, Global South perspective.

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Trump 2.0 Environmental Case Scorecard: Tracking federal lawsuits on climate and environmental actions and policies in which the Trump administration is a party. By Peter Aldhous & Marianne Lavelle, Inside Climate News, 4 November 2025.
This tracker monitors federal lawsuits against the Trump administration's environmental rollbacks. While courts have blocked several efforts, the ongoing legal volatility forces US businesses to reconsider the stability of their long-term sustainability investments.