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Newsletter of the EXTRA Working Group
of the World Academy of Art and Science
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Running on EXTRA time…
Insights from the EXTRA Working Group to help you
keep track of 'Existential Threats and Risks to All'
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EDITORIAL
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Polycrisis: On the Systemic Nature of X-Risks
This issue focuses on the growing realisation that existential risks do not operate in isolation but are interrelated either directly or through their simultaneous impact on the social and natural systems that sustain humanity. Known as the polycrisis, mega crisis, or simply systemic crisis, this phenomenon is the focus of an emerging and rapidly growing literature and debate within the broader domain of x-risk research and foresight.
In our video feature, readers will find a recording of the recent EXTRA webinar on polycrisis, chaired by Prof. Ortwin Renn, a member of the EXTRA team and past Science Director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam.
In this month's lead article, Ortwin Renn and Huan Liu review the growing literature on 'polycrisis' and 'systemic risk', and propose an integrated approach to risk assessment. Reinhard Mechler, in his article, argues that the emerging polycrisis calls for new approaches to analysis, assessment, and governance, which will yield multiple, overlapping resilience benefits. Pia-Johanna Schweizer's article calls for new approaches to systemic risk governance and resilience that are adaptive, participatory, and ethically grounded.
This month's featured reports, publications, and news items continue the theme.
Lorenzo Rodriguez Editor, EXTRA Newsletter
Prof Thomas Reuter Co-editor & Chair, EXTRA Working Group
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INTERVIEWS & WEBINARS
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Original, short interviews or discussions with experts and stakeholders on various categories of existential challenges.
Coping with Polycrisis and Systemic Risks: New approaches to assessment and governance
We invite you to watch the recording of our Polycrisis webinar, held on November 7, 2025.
The emphasis of risk research has recently shifted from topical analysis of single issues to a comprehensive analysis of interconnected and mutually interactive risk sources and crises, often framed under the heading of "polycrisis." At the same time, the literature on systemic risk alerts us to the effects of multiple, interacting risks on the functionality and survivability of entire systems. The goal of the webinar was to share insights of leading poly crisis researchers and tease out some implications for optimising crisis governance.
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ARTICLES, ESSAYS & IDEAS
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Original articles, op-ed pieces, and more – commissioned by EXTRA.
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Polycrisis and Systemic Risk: Assessment, Governance, and Communication
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Huan Liu, School of Public Administration, South China University of Technology, and Ortwin Renn, Research Institute for Sustainability – Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS)
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In recent years, the focus of integrated disaster and risk research has shifted from topical analysis toward a comprehensive understanding of interconnected and mutually interactive risk sources and crises. This evolving perspective has often been described through the concept of "polycrisis", which emphasizes how crises in one domain can amplify or cascade into others. Recently, Prof. Liu and Prof. Renn published a review paper in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, which provides a summary of the literature and delineates the implications of a joint understanding of polycrisis and systemic risk for the practice of risk assessment, risk and crisis governance, and effective communication to different audiences. This article summarizes the findings of this analysis.
Read More
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Ethics, Governance, and Systemic Resilience in an Age of Polycrisis
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Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Research Institute for Sustainability – Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS)
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The recognition that society's critical infrastructures and ecological supports are deeply interconnected has led to calls for new approaches to both resilience and governance that are adaptive, participatory, and ethically grounded. Dr. Schweizer's recent work with Sirkku Juhola and a paper by Benjamin Hofbauer et al. advance this by reimagining how systemic risks can be governed and how resilience can be ethically framed. Building on this work, the author proposes that the challenge of the Anthropocene is not only how to make systems endure, but also how to make them just and equitable.
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Polycrisis, systemic risk and resilience: Novel analytical insights and evidence needed to turn crisis into opportunity
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Reinhard Mechler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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The concept of Polycrisis—a system of interconnected and compounding crises—is receiving increasing attention. In our dynamic and complex world, multiple crises often interact, potentially leading to global tipping points and local adaptation limits. While not entirely a new concept, it has gained enhanced prominence as the mutual amplification of nested and intertwined systemic risks increasingly defines the global landscape of the twenty-first century. This reality requires new approaches to analysis, assessment, and governance in general. This article explores how interconnected risks can be addressed to yield multiple, overlapping benefits for resilience.
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UPCOMING EVENTS
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A selection of events to be aware of that are organized by EXTRA, allies, partners, and organizations on our radar.
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#RISK GCC
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DIFC Conference Centre & DIFC Academy
Dubai | December 8-9, 2025
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Read More
Anonymous Online Survey Detection of Political Violence, Social Unrest and Human Rights Violations | Andrew Shaver
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Center for International Security and Cooperation
Freeman Spogli Institute
Standford | December 9, 2025 @ 12:00-13:15 PT
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Read More
Sixth Conference on
Computational Humanities Research
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Computational Humanities Research (CHR)
Luxembourg | December 9-12, 2025
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Read More
EAGxAmsterdam
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Effective Altruism Global
Amsterdam | December 12-14, 2025
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Read More
Governance of Complexity: Bridging Research and Practice
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UvA Institute for Advanced Study (IAS)
Amsterdam | 21 January 2026 @ 12:30 -16:30 CET
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Read More
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REPORTS
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Our latest selection of the most notable published reports on Existential Threats and Risks. Beat the info glut by taking a look at our monthly five.
If you have time, check the 20 Notable Reports or the complete EXTRA Directory on our website.
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Global Trends 2024: The Uneasy Decade
Ipsos
September 2025, 64p.
"In a world flooded with information, misinformation, and even disinformation, we crave authentic messages from trusted sources." It explores the complexities of trust in brands and institutions amid growing uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts described as "Nouveau Nihilism." Key themes include the rise of "soft saving" through collective digital platforms, emergent political engagement among youth, and shifting consumer values toward holistic health, integrating mental and physical wellbeing.
Emerging Risks Initiative 2025
CRO Forum Emerging Risk Initiative
July 2025, 27p.
Highlights key risks impacting insurance within 1–10 years, including data privacy constraints from regulations such as the GDPR, which lead to premium volatility and an increase in litigation; climate change transition risks resulting in stranded assets and higher mental health claims; and geopolitical fragmentation fueled by the US-China rivalry and sanctions. Technological advances in AI and autonomous machines escalate cyber threats and operational vulnerabilities, while demographic shifts like aging populations and urbanization exacerbate social conflicts and mental health issues. New risks, such as deterioration of public healthcare systems, heighten uncertainty in underwriting and investments, emphasizing the need for enhanced risk management and resilience.
Top Risks 2025
Eurasia Group
January 2025, 42p.
Identifies a "G-Zero" world in 2025 characterized by a deepening global leadership deficit, where no major power is willing or able to maintain international order. The consequences include heightened geopolitical instability, economic fragmentation, and a rising risk of conflicts comparable to those of the 1930s and the early Cold War. The US-China rivalry exacerbates global economic disruptions through tariffs, supply chain shifts, and overcapacity challenges, with China's trade surplus near $1 trillion and tariffs impacting emerging markets. Advanced technologies, especially AI, present unprecedented opportunities alongside risks of market manipulation and loss of human control.
The Global Risks Report 2025
World Economic Forum
January 2025, 104p.
The 20th edition synthesizes insights from over 900 experts worldwide, analyzing risks across short (2025), medium (2027), and long-term (2035) horizons. Highlights a deteriorating global outlook marked by intensified geopolitical, environmental, societal, economic, and technological fragmentations. Environmental risks remain the foremost long-term concern, while "misinformation and disinformation" top the 2027 risk ranking for the second consecutive year. Economic tensions have intensified, with geoeconomic confrontation rising from rank #14 to #9 in two years, alongside cyber espionage and warfare at #5. Societal fragmentation is underscored by inequality, polarization, involuntary migration, and erosion of civic freedoms—all of which are central and interconnected threats to societal stability.
Mapping Emerging Critical Risks
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
December 2024, 43p.
Presents findings from a pilot online exercise involving 30 participants from 20 countries to identify and assess 13 emerging critical risks over the next five years. Key risks include extreme and sustained heatwaves, disinformation and social polarization, acute drinking water scarcity, the expansion of vector-borne diseases into new regions, climate change-driven mass displacement, strategic/regional tensions, and energy vulnerability leading to financial destabilization. Respondents noted low confidence and capacity in addressing risks with high impact and probability, underscoring a need to strengthen government preparedness.
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REVIEWS
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Synopses and reviews of scientific and policy articles from external sources not commissioned by EXTRA.
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Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries monitors a world out of balance
By Andrew L. Fanning and Kate Raworth, Oct 2025
Nature
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Presents an updated Doughnut framework tracking social deprivation and ecological overshoot globally (2000–2022). Despite GDP growth, social improvements lag and ecological impacts worsen, highlighting inequality. It calls for an urgent economic transformation toward regenerative and distributive systems to achieve a safe and just living within planetary boundaries.
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A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis
By Ajay Gambhir et al., Aug 2025
Nature
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Develops a novel framework for assessing systemic risks in interconnected global crises, with a focus on the food and energy systems. It emphasizes political economy, transformational responses, and inclusive practices to better understand and mitigate cascading risks within the global polycrisis.
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Critical Responses to Global Systemic Risk in an Era of Polycrisis
By Ruth Richardson, May 2025
International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
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Examines the intertwined global crises—termed the polycrisis—underscoring the necessity for systemic risk assessment, transdisciplinary approaches, and enhanced cooperation. It highlights challenges in current risk management, calls for long-term strategies, and emphasizes the need to integrate systemic risk thinking across sectors to build resilience and sustainability.
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Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement By Michael Lawrence et al., Jan 2024
Global Sustainability
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Defines and unpacks the concept of global polycrisis, exploring how interconnected crises arise from the combined effects of fast triggers and slow stresses. It identifies three causal pathways—common stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacks—that synchronize multiple crises, offering a framework to understand and address complex global challenges.
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NEWS from the World Press
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Links to a must-read selection of news for a global outlook across the spectrum of Existential Threats and Risks sourced from the media and web.
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We're In a New Everything-Is- Connected Epoch. But What to Call It?10 November 2025, New York Times, Paywalled.
T.L. Friedman proposes the label 'Polycene' herein to describe the current times, which force us to think in systemic terms to cope with multiple, compounding, and interacting risks.
Climate disasters displaced 250 million people in past 10 years, UN report finds. 26 September 2025, The Guardian, Open Access.
Reviews a new UNHCR report on the interconnections between climate change, hunger, conflict, and the displacement of 250 million people over the last decade. This illustrates the validity of the concept of polycrisis, as climate change impacts are turbo-charging other crises and vice versa, creating a need for whole-of-system responses.
Polycrisis merits renewed ethos. 24 September 2025, Bangkok Post, Open Access.
French social philosopher Edgar Morin and C. Pedretti argue the emerging polycrisis calls for a renewed ethos of humanism, fostering "an appreciation for complexity, interdependence, dignity, the responsibilities that accompany freedom, mutual understanding, spirituality, a politics of civilisation, and an integral ecology."
Insurance in the Polycrisis. 10 September 2025, Phenomenal World, Open Access.
K. Mackenzie and T. Sahay analyse the interaction between climate risks and the financial system. While insurance is at the forefront of the impacts, with increasing costs and a rising level of uninsurability, the authors argue that the impact reverberates through entire financial systems and requires a systemic response.
Navigating uncertainty: New polycrisis exploration tool for policymakers. 26 March 2025, EU Joint Research Centre, open access.
JCR scientists introduce their new Polycrisis Exploration Tool in this press release, a three-stage workshop model designed to understand and address specific constellations of multiple crises.
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