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Newsletter of the EXTRA Working Group
of the World Academy of Art and Science
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Running on EXTRA time…
Insights from the EXTRA Working Group to help you
keep track of ‘Existential Threats and Risks to All’
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Welcome
to the first edition of the WAAS EXTRA Newsletter!
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EDITORIAL
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Missing the Important by Focusing on the Urgent
We live in challenging times, and everyone struggles to keep up with the fast-moving news cycle. This information glut makes it increasingly difficult to engage in planning, foresight, and policy development, or even just to stay informed about existential challenges, which are now merging into a complex, systemic polycrisis. Missing the important by focusing on the urgent has become the rule.
The EXTRA Working Group of the World Academy of Arts and Science seeks to overcome information overload by providing a one-stop InfoHub on existential challenges on our website. There, we offer a carefully curated selection of the most important information for you, seeking to overcome fragmentation and misinformation by drawing on reliable sources from across a wide spectrum of primary knowledge producers.
This newsletter complements our InfoHub by providing a brief bulletin on the latest and most notable core threats to humanity's survival, helping you stay at the cutting edge.
The content includes original material, such as interviews and articles, as well as announcements about events organised by EXTRA, WAAS, and our partners. Additionally, it features a synopsis of the best recently released existential risk reports and news items from the global press and NGOs.
Lorenzo Rodriguez Co-editor, EXTRA Newsletter
Prof Thomas Reuter Co-editor & Chair, EXTRA Working Group
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INTERVIEWS
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Original, short interviews with experts and stakeholders on various categories of existential challenges.
In this first edition, we present the entire session of the EXTRA Panel at WAAS@65 Conference: Addressing Global Social Turbulences: Sources & Solutions, and the proposals we have to reflect our best hopes for the future.
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ARTICLES, ESSAYS & IDEAS
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Original articles, op-ed pieces, and more – commissioned by EXTRA.
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Ten Key Ideas on X-risks
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Reflections from EXTRA Research Director, Mike Marien. Designed as a guide to broaden our perspective across the evolving, multi-disciplinary domain of X-risks.
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Read More
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Technology and The Crisis of Containment
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This article examines the dynamic, driven by a militarised security paradigm, that often causes technological development to proceed without a precautionary principle of harm minimisation. From a human security perspective, our survival will depend on inner containment of the impulse to seek security at the expense of others.
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Read More
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UPCOMING EVENTS
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A selection of events to be aware of that are organized by EXTRA, allies, partners, and organizations on our radar.
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Hidden Correlations and Systemic Risk in Global Food System Vulnerability Seminar
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Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
London, United Kingdom | Sep 03, 2025
5.30 – 6.30pm UK time
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Read More
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International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development
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World Conference on Science
and Art for Sustainability
Belgrade, Serbia | Sep 22-24, 2025
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Read More
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Geneva Peace Week 2025
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Geneva Peacebuilding Platform
Geneva, Switzerland | Oct 13-17, 2025
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Read More
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REPORTS
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Our latest selection of the most notable published reports on Existential Threats and Risks. Beat the info glut by taking a look at our monthly five.
If you have time, check the 20 Notable Reports or the complete EXTRA Directory on our website.
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The Global Risks Report 2025
World Economic Forum
Jan 2025, 104p.
The 20th edition surveys 900+ experts, ranking 33 risks across two timelines. Top 2027 risks include misinformation, extreme weather, armed conflict, polarization, and cyber insecurity, reflecting an increasingly fractured global outlook.
Top Risks 2025
Eurasia Group
6 Jan 2025, 42p.
Features escalating geopolitical instability, economic fragmentation, global leadership vacuum, US-China tensions, political nationalism, 'Trumponomics,' and unregulated AI development.
Risks on the Horizon
EC Joint Research Centre
June 2024, 110p.
Presents a world of "increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity." Based on a 92-expert Delphi survey, assessing 40 risks across 10 clusters (well-being decline, supply chain disruption, democracy erosion). Identifies three potential existential threats: environmental degradation, environmental disaster, and AI surpassing human control.
Disruptions on the Horizon: 2024 Report
Policy Horizons Canada
Sept 2024, 37p.
Key risks identified: misinformation, ecosystem collapse, billionaire influence, social mobility decline, failure of emergency systems, mental health deterioration, cyber threats to infrastructure, and AI development concerns. The highest impact scenarios include global conflict, healthcare collapse, US internal strife, and the failure of democratic institutions.
The Era of Global Risk
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
Open Book Publishers, Fall 2023, 333p
Vol 1: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies covers history, ecological breakdown, biosecurity, and military AI. Vol 2: An Anthology of Global Risk (Open Book, Sept 2024, 694p) features chapters on risk classification, hazard likelihood, horizon scanning, AI, climate, and bioengineering.
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REVIEWS
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Synopses and reviews of scientific and policy articles from external sources not commissioned by EXTRA.
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Forecasting Nuclear Escalation Risks:
Cloudy With a Chance of Fallout
By Jamie Kwong, Anna Bartoux, and James M. Acton
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Forecasting can help us better understand and address the challenge of managing escalation. This involves estimating the overall risk of nuclear conflict, enabling policymakers to determine how much time, money, and political capital to allocate to risk mitigation. Forecasting also helps assess the efficacy of risk-reduction measures, allowing policymakers to allocate available resources most effectively.
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Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk
By Constantin W. Arnscheidt et al.
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Explores how complex global system vulnerabilities drive catastrophic risks, highlighting systemic interconnections, tipping points, and governance challenges for preventing disasters.
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NEWS from the World Press
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Links to a must-read selection of news for a global outlook across the spectrum of Existential Threats and Risks sourced from the media and web.
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1.Farming within Earth’s limits is still possible – but it will take a Herculean effort. The Conversation, Open Access July 2, 2025
A jargon-free assessment of the state of research on what solutions are available to keep agriculture from breaching planetary boundaries, and the relative effectiveness of these solutions.
2. Technology is transforming the face of modern warfare, but some things never change. The Conversation, Open Access, June 26, 2025
Explores how technology is changing the nature of warfare, posing new risks of catastrophic impacts and questioning the idea of major ‘conventional war’ as a moderate or non-existential threat.
3. Why nuclear war, not the climate crisis, is humanity’s biggest threat, according to one author. The Guardian, Open Access, 15 June 2025
Mark Lynas argues nuclear war poses a greater existential threat than climate change, citing the irreversible devastation of nuclear winter and urging a global anti-nuclear movement to match climate activism.
4. Climate Tipping Points for Decision Makers. Climate Systems Hub, National Environmental Science Program [Australia], Open Access, May 2025
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth’s systems that could trigger irreversible changes. While 16 such elements exist, Australian projections to 2100 remain stable, though risks like sea-level rise need attention.
5. Vanishing Insects, Collapsing Biosphere: Nature’s Warning from the World’s Last Rainforests, CityWatch LA, Open Access, June 16 2025
Insects are vanishing even in pristine rainforests, signaling ecological collapse. Climate change, habitat loss, and pesticide use are driving declines, threatening the global food web and biodiversity.
6. America Should Assume the Worst About AI, Foreign Affairs, July 22, 2025
Highlights the global urgency to prepare for disruptions from artificial general intelligence (AGI), calling for early adaptation through international cooperation, crisis playbooks, resilient cyberdefenses, and public-private partnerships to manage risk in an increasingly multipolar world, outlining geopolitical risks and national security dilemmas if the U.S. or China achieves AGI first.
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